Check out this blog post on Be a Blogger.Biz!
Be a Blogger . Biz: Job vs Business: Job vs Business.....especially a Blogging Business....is something to think about! I know a lot of folks need a job these days.....h...
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
Friday, February 1, 2013
Our New Sister Site - Harvest Time Bloggers
Harvest Time Bloggers is our new sister site. It will be all about Christians who want to be bloggers!
So if you have a desire to be a blogger.....to leave an impact on the world by sharing what you know.....stop by and visit us there.
It is brand new......but it will be growing day by day!
So come on by and visit us at Harvest Time Bloggers !
So if you have a desire to be a blogger.....to leave an impact on the world by sharing what you know.....stop by and visit us there.
It is brand new......but it will be growing day by day!
So come on by and visit us at Harvest Time Bloggers !
The Enemy Will Lie To You
The Enemy Will Lie To You.... it is so true.....and today more than any other time in history!
Of course the message in this video gives us great hope.....and blows our minds when we think of how fortunate we are.....that God....the creator of the universe loves his creation so much! That He cherishes us and rejoices when we finally come home. And He sets a path in front of us while we are on this earth.....and takes care of us every step of the way!
BUT The Enemy Will Lie To You and me.....every minute of the day!!!
If you have ever read your Bible.....you know that you are seeing things coming to pass or coming true at a very fast pace......TODAY. Things that were written down over 2,000 years ago.....are now all over the front page of the newspapers and all over the news feeds.
And of course people go crazy over the Mayan Calender and Nostradamus and just go jelly legged over the thought of these things and how they MIGHT come true.
BUT God said that to show you that HE IS GOD.....He will show you things before they happen....so that you will KNOW THAT HE IS GOD.
And these things have been and always will be 100% TRUE!!!! Not like the Mayan Calender or just some of the stuff that Nostradamus claims.....ALL of what God said will come true.....and does comes true!
100% of it....is going to happen and no one can stop it!
Now I have been around for 58 years and now....in the present day.....I am just seeing so many things coming to pass. Things that are clearly foretold in the Bible.....and other things that never made sense before.....but now in present day, they are now clear and obvious!
Every day we see more and more in the news.
The last 10 years has brought so much change....in fact it is frightening if you are not a Christian.
But the enemy will lie to you and he does and is doing that right now at an all time high.......because he is running out of time! When some of the world leaders and politicians open their mouth.....nothing but lies come out.
Over the last 10 years we have seen such an acceleration of technology.....and unfortunately....a huge decline in morality. We have seen God taken out of the schools.....and we now teach that He is NOT the creator....instead we take some theory that a man came up with.....that we evolved out of a mud puddle.
That's what we decided to teach our children in our schools!
And God is a very jealous God and very protective of His title as the Creator. In fact when you read in the book of Job when God is defending His title as the creator......He can get very angry with anyone who begs to differ with Him.
So when we take that title away from Him.....when we kick Him out of the schools....when we kill our offspring......when we take Him out of our public life because it may be offensive to those who do not believe......well what is He to do?
Well He already told us what He will do and it is happening and now at a very fast pace. All of it.....100% of it will come true. It will happen and you cannot stop it.
The only thing that you can do.....is to acknowledge that He is who He is.....and ask for forgiveness. And follow Him.
And what is about to come on the world next is just incredibly bad! What you have seen with the weird weather and storms.....it is just the beginning.
And of course most folks will blame God.....and never admit that we kicked Him out. We kicked Him out of our lives and our schools. And now we kicked Him out of our country. We take His name out of our pledge. We decide.....it is now our CHOICE when a baby will live or die.....and we take the creator out of the equation. We decide what is morally correct....and we kick Him out of the rule making business.
And when our country falters we wonder why. When violence comes to our schools we wonder why. When bad weather comes and crops fail....we wonder why.
You see God will bless His people when they are obedient. But if we turn away from Him and reject Him and decide that we will run our own lives....thank you very much.....He will curse us and our land.
Blessings are reserved for His people. And curses are reserved for His enemies.
And that choice is OUR choice! We choose!
The enemy will lie to you.....but God always speaks the truth!
So all I can say is that if you are a Christian.....get into the Word!!!! Get right or get left....behind!
Watch this video and let it sink in!!!
God loves you and the hour is coming upon us.
And if you are not a Christian.....God loves you so much! He wants you to learn more about Him....AND what is coming down the road for all of us earth dwellers.....and real soon too.
So if you are in that latter group....and you are not a Christian.....you can Contact Us or get to a good Bible believing church.
Because The Enemy Will Lie To You and we are running out of time!
Of course the message in this video gives us great hope.....and blows our minds when we think of how fortunate we are.....that God....the creator of the universe loves his creation so much! That He cherishes us and rejoices when we finally come home. And He sets a path in front of us while we are on this earth.....and takes care of us every step of the way!
BUT The Enemy Will Lie To You and me.....every minute of the day!!!
If you have ever read your Bible.....you know that you are seeing things coming to pass or coming true at a very fast pace......TODAY. Things that were written down over 2,000 years ago.....are now all over the front page of the newspapers and all over the news feeds.
And of course people go crazy over the Mayan Calender and Nostradamus and just go jelly legged over the thought of these things and how they MIGHT come true.
BUT God said that to show you that HE IS GOD.....He will show you things before they happen....so that you will KNOW THAT HE IS GOD.
And these things have been and always will be 100% TRUE!!!! Not like the Mayan Calender or just some of the stuff that Nostradamus claims.....ALL of what God said will come true.....and does comes true!
100% of it....is going to happen and no one can stop it!
Now I have been around for 58 years and now....in the present day.....I am just seeing so many things coming to pass. Things that are clearly foretold in the Bible.....and other things that never made sense before.....but now in present day, they are now clear and obvious!
Every day we see more and more in the news.
The last 10 years has brought so much change....in fact it is frightening if you are not a Christian.
But the enemy will lie to you and he does and is doing that right now at an all time high.......because he is running out of time! When some of the world leaders and politicians open their mouth.....nothing but lies come out.
Over the last 10 years we have seen such an acceleration of technology.....and unfortunately....a huge decline in morality. We have seen God taken out of the schools.....and we now teach that He is NOT the creator....instead we take some theory that a man came up with.....that we evolved out of a mud puddle.
That's what we decided to teach our children in our schools!
And God is a very jealous God and very protective of His title as the Creator. In fact when you read in the book of Job when God is defending His title as the creator......He can get very angry with anyone who begs to differ with Him.
So when we take that title away from Him.....when we kick Him out of the schools....when we kill our offspring......when we take Him out of our public life because it may be offensive to those who do not believe......well what is He to do?
Well He already told us what He will do and it is happening and now at a very fast pace. All of it.....100% of it will come true. It will happen and you cannot stop it.
The only thing that you can do.....is to acknowledge that He is who He is.....and ask for forgiveness. And follow Him.
And what is about to come on the world next is just incredibly bad! What you have seen with the weird weather and storms.....it is just the beginning.
And of course most folks will blame God.....and never admit that we kicked Him out. We kicked Him out of our lives and our schools. And now we kicked Him out of our country. We take His name out of our pledge. We decide.....it is now our CHOICE when a baby will live or die.....and we take the creator out of the equation. We decide what is morally correct....and we kick Him out of the rule making business.
And when our country falters we wonder why. When violence comes to our schools we wonder why. When bad weather comes and crops fail....we wonder why.
You see God will bless His people when they are obedient. But if we turn away from Him and reject Him and decide that we will run our own lives....thank you very much.....He will curse us and our land.
Blessings are reserved for His people. And curses are reserved for His enemies.
And that choice is OUR choice! We choose!
The enemy will lie to you.....but God always speaks the truth!
So all I can say is that if you are a Christian.....get into the Word!!!! Get right or get left....behind!
Watch this video and let it sink in!!!
God loves you and the hour is coming upon us.
And if you are not a Christian.....God loves you so much! He wants you to learn more about Him....AND what is coming down the road for all of us earth dwellers.....and real soon too.
So if you are in that latter group....and you are not a Christian.....you can Contact Us or get to a good Bible believing church.
Because The Enemy Will Lie To You and we are running out of time!
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Free eBooks at Be a Blogger.Biz
We posted some Free eBooks at Be a Blogger.Biz for all those folks who have dreamed of having a blog or website of their own some day.
I admit that it can seem like a big step going from thinking about it, to actually doing it. And soooo many people today are looking for some sort of extra income.....to keep them from sliding down the economic hill.
Relax though, it isn't that hard at all......in fact as soon as you get used to it.....it's pretty darn easy to do.
But without some knowledge....well it will either never happen or it will just never make any money!
Years ago I stumbled onto a company.....and I can't even remember how.....but they taught me how to build a website. Now I wasn't very good at following directions because I had some ideas of what I wanted to do. So I built my first website. And guess what......it just sat there. Then I built another one and that one was doing okay.
Finally, I followed the directions.....ha,ha,ha! Yeah I guess I was a typical male....but I went step by step with what they taught me and sure enough.....that website took off.
I sure wish that I had READ these Free eBooks at Be a Blogger.Biz when I was starting out......and followed ALL the information when I built the first two sites!!! They are critical in learning what to do.....and more importantly.....what not to do.
Well that website that I built.....you know......following the directions, that one took off. I bumped a major corporation right off the first search result page.....just about totally off the second page and quite a bit off the third page.
Now they were very well established....their site looked awesome....and they had tons of money to sink into their site. But little old me knocked them right off the page using techniques that I learned from some of these eBooks.
Well I don't know if you would like to earn extra money or not. I am a trader just like you and having money coming in from some where else.....well that can make you a better trader. It takes the sting out of getting tapped on a stop loss. It makes a bad day in trading, not so bad at all.
It can give you the resources that you needed all along........you know......in order to trade properly!
So if you have ever thought that it might be cool to have your own website or blog. If you have ever thought that it could be cool to have some extra money just coming into your bank account from having an online business......then take a look at these eBooks.
It's free information that may just change your life!
Visit Free eBooks at Be a Blogger.Biz and download your copy today! Or download all of them!
Learn how you could be in a business of your own.....today......even if you do not have a product of your own to sell!!!!
I admit that it can seem like a big step going from thinking about it, to actually doing it. And soooo many people today are looking for some sort of extra income.....to keep them from sliding down the economic hill.
Relax though, it isn't that hard at all......in fact as soon as you get used to it.....it's pretty darn easy to do.
But without some knowledge....well it will either never happen or it will just never make any money!
Years ago I stumbled onto a company.....and I can't even remember how.....but they taught me how to build a website. Now I wasn't very good at following directions because I had some ideas of what I wanted to do. So I built my first website. And guess what......it just sat there. Then I built another one and that one was doing okay.
Finally, I followed the directions.....ha,ha,ha! Yeah I guess I was a typical male....but I went step by step with what they taught me and sure enough.....that website took off.
I sure wish that I had READ these Free eBooks at Be a Blogger.Biz when I was starting out......and followed ALL the information when I built the first two sites!!! They are critical in learning what to do.....and more importantly.....what not to do.
Well that website that I built.....you know......following the directions, that one took off. I bumped a major corporation right off the first search result page.....just about totally off the second page and quite a bit off the third page.
Now they were very well established....their site looked awesome....and they had tons of money to sink into their site. But little old me knocked them right off the page using techniques that I learned from some of these eBooks.
Well I don't know if you would like to earn extra money or not. I am a trader just like you and having money coming in from some where else.....well that can make you a better trader. It takes the sting out of getting tapped on a stop loss. It makes a bad day in trading, not so bad at all.
It can give you the resources that you needed all along........you know......in order to trade properly!
So if you have ever thought that it might be cool to have your own website or blog. If you have ever thought that it could be cool to have some extra money just coming into your bank account from having an online business......then take a look at these eBooks.
It's free information that may just change your life!
Visit Free eBooks at Be a Blogger.Biz and download your copy today! Or download all of them!
Learn how you could be in a business of your own.....today......even if you do not have a product of your own to sell!!!!
Friday, January 11, 2013
Woodies CCI With a 5 Simple Moving Average
Today we discussed the Woodies CCI With a 5 Simple Moving Average added to it in order to confirm a divergent high that was failing....and then did indeed fail at that high.
Now it doesn't mean that we would go short there and that depends on the trader. But if you were long and the market did indeed make a higher high.....with Woodies CCI showing clear divergence, well it could have been a great opportunity to get out.
Now what the 5 SMA shows is that the 14 period CCI was on the wrong side of the moving average....and it was not getting through. And you can see that in the picture below.
++1_11_2013+W-Ind+Box.JPG)
Now it doesn't mean that we would go short there and that depends on the trader. But if you were long and the market did indeed make a higher high.....with Woodies CCI showing clear divergence, well it could have been a great opportunity to get out.
Now what the 5 SMA shows is that the 14 period CCI was on the wrong side of the moving average....and it was not getting through. And you can see that in the picture below.
++1_11_2013+W-Ind+Box.JPG)
Click on image to enlarge
So most traders will wait for confirmation of some sorts, in order to get into a trade. You know, something like price coming back to test a 21 SMA or EMA. In fact Linda Raschke calls that the Holy Grail trade....because it is about the most reliable and best trade that you can get.
Well this is a higher high and typically you would not try and short the very top of a high, but as I said if you were long....ESPECIALLY so close to the close of the week.....it would have been THE exit!!!
Now to add the 5 Simple Period Moving Average, you can see the Indicator Box for Ninja Trader and the Data Source and Pane selection is what is critical. And WHY do you ask?
Well we want the 5 SMA to be using the data OF THE 14 CCI and not use the price data. So look at the Magenta line following the white line which is the 14 CCI. It follows close and is smooth.
Now if you are good at creating indicators within Ninja Trader....or your platform.....what ever you use, you can have the price bars change color when the CCI crosses above or below the 5 SMA.
BUT you need to regard that in context with market conditions and not just trade it blindly. But it can definitely be used for Permission to go in that direction when you have confirmation.
But why would we do that? And what do I mean by permission? Well just think of driving a car. You are sitting at a red light and getting ready to go. Then the light turns green. What do you do?
You see you are programmed by a simple color change to do something. So if you are getting ready to go long and you are waiting and then the bar turns green or blue.....you go. Now does that work all the time?
NO!
And that's why I say that we need to use it in context of what the market is doing. When the market is in a choppy zone....the color will change back and forth. BUT when the market is in an up trend and we get a pullback, or a bull flag, and then we get a cross.....that would be in context of what the market is doing in the predominant direction. You can think of it as a possible trigger....when you are sitting there waiting to click your mouse.
Anyway I hope that helps our readers. This is what we were discussing in the Live Trading Room today and I thought that I would throw it out there on the blog for our trading friends.
Good trading!!!
Monday, December 24, 2012
Lack of Funds for Traders
My biggest obstacle in trading has been the lack of funds. And I do not think that I am alone in this!
Most traders I believe, do not have enough funds, to trade properly. And I don't think it matters if you are a Forex trader, futures trader or heck even a stock trader.
But I do know for me, this has been my biggest problem.
What I would typically do is tighten my stops real tight so that I wouldn't lose a lot of money. And that may have been true....I did not lose a lot of money on THAT trade. BUT......I lost more times so of course that ultimately meant I lost more money.
Well I just wrote about the Lack of Funds for Traders on my other blog and I personally think this is a universal problem for new traders especially.
And I have had to deal with this for years.......never coming up with the proper solution.
Well what if we could fix the problem? What if the answer.....was already a part of what we already do on a daily basis?
You see that's what I was looking for. Not another income or funds from having 2 jobs.....just another income.
Well anyway you can read about what I wrote on the other blog about Funds for Traders and who knows....maybe you will agree.
In any case...have a very Merry Christmas....and a Happy and PROSPEROUS New Year!!!!
Most traders I believe, do not have enough funds, to trade properly. And I don't think it matters if you are a Forex trader, futures trader or heck even a stock trader.
But I do know for me, this has been my biggest problem.
What I would typically do is tighten my stops real tight so that I wouldn't lose a lot of money. And that may have been true....I did not lose a lot of money on THAT trade. BUT......I lost more times so of course that ultimately meant I lost more money.
Well I just wrote about the Lack of Funds for Traders on my other blog and I personally think this is a universal problem for new traders especially.
And I have had to deal with this for years.......never coming up with the proper solution.
Well what if we could fix the problem? What if the answer.....was already a part of what we already do on a daily basis?
You see that's what I was looking for. Not another income or funds from having 2 jobs.....just another income.
Well anyway you can read about what I wrote on the other blog about Funds for Traders and who knows....maybe you will agree.
In any case...have a very Merry Christmas....and a Happy and PROSPEROUS New Year!!!!
Sunday, December 16, 2012
Introducing Our New Sister Sites
We have started two new sister sites. Now you may or may not be interested in them.....but we never know what our visitors are into, as far as there business lives go anyway.
So the sites are listed below and we would appreciate it if you just visit them.....even if it's out of curiosity. They are new and we can get better search engine results if we get incoming clicks from other sites. It shows the search engines that they have relevancy. So check them out if you are curious....or just have some time.
B2B Sales Leads - This site offers our favorite Sales Leads Software to businesses and is a basic blog site that will only have a few pages.....but will then have a lot of blog updates. The software is fantastic for those of us who are trying to grow a side business or a full time business. I bought it for my aviation business over a year ago, but now use it for an insurance business that I am starting.
Lots of Sales Leads - This site is more geared towards people who want to earn extra income.....or a full time income. It is the same software, however there is a lot more information about starting a second income stream....and a residual income at that. There are many ways to grow this business but I prefer to market over the Internet and to do direct mail campaigns. This way I do very little work on it during the week, and yet the sales can come in on there own during the week automatically.
Anyway, we wanted to introduce them to you.....just in case you are remotely interested. And we could use the clicks to get the sites kicked off in the right direction.
Thanx.....and I wish you the very best in your trading!
So the sites are listed below and we would appreciate it if you just visit them.....even if it's out of curiosity. They are new and we can get better search engine results if we get incoming clicks from other sites. It shows the search engines that they have relevancy. So check them out if you are curious....or just have some time.
B2B Sales Leads - This site offers our favorite Sales Leads Software to businesses and is a basic blog site that will only have a few pages.....but will then have a lot of blog updates. The software is fantastic for those of us who are trying to grow a side business or a full time business. I bought it for my aviation business over a year ago, but now use it for an insurance business that I am starting.
Lots of Sales Leads - This site is more geared towards people who want to earn extra income.....or a full time income. It is the same software, however there is a lot more information about starting a second income stream....and a residual income at that. There are many ways to grow this business but I prefer to market over the Internet and to do direct mail campaigns. This way I do very little work on it during the week, and yet the sales can come in on there own during the week automatically.
Anyway, we wanted to introduce them to you.....just in case you are remotely interested. And we could use the clicks to get the sites kicked off in the right direction.
Thanx.....and I wish you the very best in your trading!
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Really Long Term Predictions for the Financial Markets
Really Long Term Predictions for the Financial Markets? What markets? And how long term are these predictions?
You and I know that everyone wants to know where the market is going next. Traders and investors spend small fortunes trying to figure out what will happen next in the markets.
And after what America has gone through with the latest "recession".......well let's just say that it seems to be on everyone's mind.
Well in the Christian Trading Room.....we talk about the markets and where they will go next. But usually we are more concerned about the next 5 minutes or the next hour or so. But traders will be traders and we talk about lots of subjects while we trade during the day.
Yesterday, one of our great Christian brothers popped into the room and he was talking about a You Tube video that he saw and he shared it with us. Now I didn't watch it right away personally but I was watching the discussions about the video. Then later when the markets were getting ready to close, I pulled it up and started to watch it.
All I can say is WOW!!!!!
I found this so interesting that I just had to share it with all of you......so I embedded it below so you can find it easily.
So before you check it out for yourself.......think about this for a second.
We are all born with some sort of religion.....or beliefs....and basically it comes from our culture and parents. But deep down inside of each person is a little voice that lets us know that there must be more to this life and there must be some sort of higher being and creator.
Now out of all the religions that there are in the world, Christianity is set apart because God told us that He would show us things before they happen......to prove that He is God. And we find all sorts of these predictions or prophesies throughout the Bible.
What I am always amazed at though is how precise these prophesies are.....especially about the birth and crucifiction and Resurrection of Jesus......way before He ever came to earth.
And the really wild thing is the day and age that we are living in RIGHT NOW!!!!! You see the last book of the Bible tells us what will happen before Jesus comes back. And what is really crazy is that it flat out tells us that when these things start to happen.......that generation will not pass away until all of these things come to pass.
That is so crazy......I mean we are talking about things that God said through the Bible that were foretold thousands of years ago and when we read that book of the Bible.....we see these things happening right now. And not obscure things......they are all over the front pages of newspapers and all over the news sources on the internet. It's kind of spooky in a way.....and yet how exciting to be living in this day and age.
So now watch this video and see how 9/11 was spoken about in the Bible......and see how our politicians spoke the very words that were spoken about thousands of years ago. That's right......9/11!!!!
But as you watch it.....think about where America's financial system will go in the next few months if America does not take heed to what has been foretold.....and although I personally think it will be months, it will certainly shock you soon......even if I am wrong about months.
And I am wrong when I trade believe me.....but I always have that planned into every trade :)
So here it is.....and one quick note.....it starts off a little slow and you may be tempted to hit stop......but I am telling you the pace picks up and goes faster and faster. It gets so interesting that you will find your self glued to the screen. And when you start to get into it.....you will not be able to stop it and most likely you will have goose bumps as well. So.....check it out!!!
You and I know that everyone wants to know where the market is going next. Traders and investors spend small fortunes trying to figure out what will happen next in the markets.
And after what America has gone through with the latest "recession".......well let's just say that it seems to be on everyone's mind.
Well in the Christian Trading Room.....we talk about the markets and where they will go next. But usually we are more concerned about the next 5 minutes or the next hour or so. But traders will be traders and we talk about lots of subjects while we trade during the day.
Yesterday, one of our great Christian brothers popped into the room and he was talking about a You Tube video that he saw and he shared it with us. Now I didn't watch it right away personally but I was watching the discussions about the video. Then later when the markets were getting ready to close, I pulled it up and started to watch it.
All I can say is WOW!!!!!
I found this so interesting that I just had to share it with all of you......so I embedded it below so you can find it easily.
So before you check it out for yourself.......think about this for a second.
We are all born with some sort of religion.....or beliefs....and basically it comes from our culture and parents. But deep down inside of each person is a little voice that lets us know that there must be more to this life and there must be some sort of higher being and creator.
Now out of all the religions that there are in the world, Christianity is set apart because God told us that He would show us things before they happen......to prove that He is God. And we find all sorts of these predictions or prophesies throughout the Bible.
What I am always amazed at though is how precise these prophesies are.....especially about the birth and crucifiction and Resurrection of Jesus......way before He ever came to earth.
And the really wild thing is the day and age that we are living in RIGHT NOW!!!!! You see the last book of the Bible tells us what will happen before Jesus comes back. And what is really crazy is that it flat out tells us that when these things start to happen.......that generation will not pass away until all of these things come to pass.
That is so crazy......I mean we are talking about things that God said through the Bible that were foretold thousands of years ago and when we read that book of the Bible.....we see these things happening right now. And not obscure things......they are all over the front pages of newspapers and all over the news sources on the internet. It's kind of spooky in a way.....and yet how exciting to be living in this day and age.
So now watch this video and see how 9/11 was spoken about in the Bible......and see how our politicians spoke the very words that were spoken about thousands of years ago. That's right......9/11!!!!
But as you watch it.....think about where America's financial system will go in the next few months if America does not take heed to what has been foretold.....and although I personally think it will be months, it will certainly shock you soon......even if I am wrong about months.
And I am wrong when I trade believe me.....but I always have that planned into every trade :)
So here it is.....and one quick note.....it starts off a little slow and you may be tempted to hit stop......but I am telling you the pace picks up and goes faster and faster. It gets so interesting that you will find your self glued to the screen. And when you start to get into it.....you will not be able to stop it and most likely you will have goose bumps as well. So.....check it out!!!
Wow right? And think of this for a minute.....Adam and Eve did not listen to God.....but instead did their own thing.....and we know how that turned out.
Back in Noah's day the people were doing what they wanted to do and practiced all sorts of immorality and they mocked God....and did not change.....and we know how that turned out.
And then there was Sodom and Gomorrah....and again the people rebelled against God and practiced all sorts of immorality and they refused to change....so God destroyed them with fire.
And now look at America......we kill our babies and we again practice all sorts of immorality and......now some even mock God, but certainly the majority is not changing. So now that we have had a warning will America change?
Will we personally change?
Will God change His mind......and NOT do what He say's He will do? Not likely!!!
Folks.......if we do not change I can tell you which way the markets will go in the longer term. In fact from a technical view......I have been telling my kids "not" to even think about buying houses now.....and pay off debts and save. Because in my view of the markets.......the recession that we have just witnessed is a tinker toy as compared to what is coming down the road. And now after watching this video.....I am convinced even more.
Oh sure everyone is talking about the recovery of the markets.......but the market is so weak technically. It is just crawling and struggling to keep going.
So what will we do? Well personally as for me and my house......we shall serve our God. Now more than ever it is so critical for all of us to look into what the Bible is saying and make up our minds and we need to do it soon......because all of the earth quakes and tornadoes and weather changes is no accident.
And it will get increasingly worse.....so time is running out.
Well.....you know how to find us if you have questions. Just pop into the chat room or contact us through the Contact Us page and any one of our members would be happy to answer your questions or concerns.
And don't be scared of the unknown.....because it is not unknown......it is only the beginning!
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Can an Algorithm be Visual
Folks who know me....know my charts right off the bat. And usually because I have too much stuff on them.....and I am certainly not discounting that fact.
However my journey has a goal and I have a vision in exactly what I want from my charts and basically it is an algorithm.......but it is also a visual algorithm......if there is such a thing.
So in the interim period of time I do have 2 indicators at the bottom of my screen and they help me tremendously with divergence and trend "weakening" forecasting and I am used to it. But I have to be perfectly honest with myself......it could be really confusing for a new trader.
Well yesterday I was helping a new trader from the fund that I am part of.....and he just had to have my charts.. LOL!
So he took a Genesis Trade Navigator free trial and I gave him my library of indicators that I had built and I helped him set up his charts. Well we did not even finish....and I had to leave....but when I left he was set back a little. Those darn little diamonds are pretty cool when you couple them up with the Hull Moving Average.
He changed his diamonds to arrows......but I think his whole life changed yesterday....LOL.
So anyway this morning I was thinking of what my ultimate goal was and I turned off the two indicators at the bottom of my charts and looked at Friday's EURUSD short.....which by the way I got into really late. I was looking for a person on the internet helping out one of our members and I saw price take off on the other screen out of the corner of my eye.
I actually just hit sell because I was waiting for it.....but I just wasn't paying attention. So on the 60 min chart you can see the entry and it hit the 6:1 reward risk target by a pip.....but the 4:1 target was rock solid. I did get the 5:1 by accident I guess as I had a 100 pip limit exit on in case I wasn't looking.....and I wasn't looking when it hit. So accident...good planning....what ever. Just another trade...... just so we keep the emotions under control!
Okay...let's look at the chart below. First we look at the screening chart which in my case is a 240 minute...or 4 hour chart.
However my journey has a goal and I have a vision in exactly what I want from my charts and basically it is an algorithm.......but it is also a visual algorithm......if there is such a thing.
So in the interim period of time I do have 2 indicators at the bottom of my screen and they help me tremendously with divergence and trend "weakening" forecasting and I am used to it. But I have to be perfectly honest with myself......it could be really confusing for a new trader.
Well yesterday I was helping a new trader from the fund that I am part of.....and he just had to have my charts.. LOL!
So he took a Genesis Trade Navigator free trial and I gave him my library of indicators that I had built and I helped him set up his charts. Well we did not even finish....and I had to leave....but when I left he was set back a little. Those darn little diamonds are pretty cool when you couple them up with the Hull Moving Average.
He changed his diamonds to arrows......but I think his whole life changed yesterday....LOL.
So anyway this morning I was thinking of what my ultimate goal was and I turned off the two indicators at the bottom of my charts and looked at Friday's EURUSD short.....which by the way I got into really late. I was looking for a person on the internet helping out one of our members and I saw price take off on the other screen out of the corner of my eye.
I actually just hit sell because I was waiting for it.....but I just wasn't paying attention. So on the 60 min chart you can see the entry and it hit the 6:1 reward risk target by a pip.....but the 4:1 target was rock solid. I did get the 5:1 by accident I guess as I had a 100 pip limit exit on in case I wasn't looking.....and I wasn't looking when it hit. So accident...good planning....what ever. Just another trade...... just so we keep the emotions under control!
Okay...let's look at the chart below. First we look at the screening chart which in my case is a 240 minute...or 4 hour chart.
Click on image to enlarge
So we know the dominate trend is down and we know we were in a corrective pull back. The A,B,C could be argued....and I am not arguing with the market at all....or anyone else. But at the very least we had a double bottom and we knew the pullback would be significant. And based on the fact that price penetrated the 21 SMA we pretty much knew the 89 EMA would be tested. In short.....we were expecting the down trend to make another push down.
But the corrective up move was also significant enough to trade as this is a 240 min chart and the trade would actually take place on a 60 min or even a 15 min if we wanted to.
But the point of this blog post is....can an algorithm be visual?
Well......we have indicators and we have logic. And the logic filters out bad trades and only lets us take the good trades.
So the rules are:
- We need a BUY or a SELL indication which is a Cyan or Magenta Diamond. And usually they are right on time.....or early!
- The HMA must agree...and also be Cyan or Magenta and it is very fast also.
- AND the bars need to agree also....so they need to be Green or Red
- And lastly....at least two time frames must both agree! So if they do not agree totally on the higher time frames...we reduce the time frames...but they must agree.
So if I am not mistaken....this is pretty much a very simple algo in my mind.....and if I am stretching it.....it is at least logic. But my goal was for it to be colors...a trigger....and filtered. And something that almost anyone could master. I think we are getting close :) We are capturing at least 80% of the value of the indicators being used.....and bringing it up to the price bars.....to keep us focused on price!!!!
Anyway....lets look at the 60 minute chart and see how it worked out.
Click on the image to enlarge
Well the first thing you will notice is the huge down swing....and wow.....you got in really late Dave!!!!
Ha,ha,ha.....yes I did LOL. But I was helping someone and what I was doing at the time was important.....but we also have to accept that we were expecting this move and we were expecting a re-test of the previous low so my jump into it was of course a higher risk then my yellow strip down my back would normally allow.......but I kept my finger on the mouse. And it did not take very long at all to get to the break even trigger line (at 1.2730 or 1:1 reward to risk)....and after that it was a free trade.
But let's look at the corrective upswing. We got a Cyan diamond and the HMA turned Cyan.....but we did not get Green bars at first. Price then hit the 21 SMA and the bar turned green but we had our face right up against the 21SMA.....so why would we trade that? And immediately.....price stalled but it stalled above the 21 SMA...which is the white line.
Now price settles in and is using the 21 SMA for support.....and then a Cyan diamond pops up....on the bar...but slightly early for the buy. We needed the bar to close to verify. And on the next bar....it turns green and we have all of our rules verified....and there you go.
Now as the EURUSD does....we had a little down spike 5 bars later that triggered the Parabolic SAR.....and in my case would take me out because I go to break even when my trigger tells me to......but the very next buy signal would have taken us to the top.
Now to clarify the diamonds.....they are simply a cross over of a SMA on CCI. SO because its CCI driven it is very fast....so fast that many times it's early or right on. SO we do not close a trade immediately if one pops up....and we are only interested in the signals in the direction of our trade.....but the opposite signals...in this case the sell signals....are a heads up.
And if they agree with price candle's, the HMA....or what ever we use to determine a change of direction.....well then it is an awesome heads up indeed.
Now this looks really clean with out indicators on the chart. But if you are experienced enough to use indicators as well.....then I would use them. I started to trade a new market....well actually it is an old friend that always tricked me. And that was about 8 years ago and no matter what indicator I used that darn market would fake me out all the time.
Well I was trading it on the simulator to prove to myself that I knew more today then I did 8 years ago.....and it was going and going and going. I knew it was going to make a pullback.....but it just seemed like it wouldn't quit.
I was in it on a long position and yesterday when I woke up I turned on the charts and the thing spiked up.....and ADX and CCI was screaming at me that this was the end. I got the sell signals and the ADX and CCI conditions made me tighten my stop way up close anyway and I was taken out.
Then on the next bar the bar turned red.....and I was triggered into a short. And it was so close to the top that my risk was right in line with the rules.
Within the first hour I was triggered into break even and the entry was never challenged. So what does that all mean?
If you use the ADX....which everyone says is a lagging indicator.....to determine the strength, or more importantly the weakness of the trend.....and you use the CCI to determine the entry and also divergence....they can drastically assist you in getting into a swing at the right time. And what I mean at the right time.....I mean impulse power that drags us into profits and not challenge our stops....or even our entries in most cases.
I agree with all of the pro's that price is the fastest indication of direction, strength....etc. But lets also remember that only 1 or 2 of us out of every 10 traders will actually make it. SO we have to strive to be smarter and more efficient at our trading. We have indicators to help us....and I agree they can also distract us.
But we also have computers and that gives us such an edge over all of our predecessors. So use the darn thing. Make your charts work for you....and make them work hard.
And always, always......always.....trade it on a simulator until you are absolutely convinced that you have an edge and your stats prove it. If you can't prove it with your stats.....you have no business trading real money.
And lastly.....in my humble opinion and yes it is just an opinion of mine.....risk management and money management is the most important aspect of trading. If you constantly take care of managing your risk and your money.....with a vengeance.....your profits will take care of themselves.
Well......until next time....may God richly bless you and your family!!!!!
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Patience is a Virtue
As a Christian Trader we should always display patience because we know that it is actually a form of discipline. Well the trader part of us has a real hard time with that discipline when we get a market that goes into one of these long dragged out corrections......that just goes sideways for days and days and days.....uggggg.
Click on Image to Enlarge
As you can see from the screen shot above, the EUR/USD was going sideways for days. This is a 240 minute chart (4 hours each bar) and it started to expand in the beginning of the correction, but then started to contract or coil up as we usually say.
Finally I ran a Fibonacci retracement on it and noticed that it rejected the .786 retracement really well. Then it did it again the next day.....and then again.
So we are supposed to maintain our composure and be patient....but then again we know Murphy's law all to well......and that would mean that this will probably break out during the early morning hours when we are sleeping.
In my case I knew it was going to break but being the optimistic type I figured that it would do that on Monday so on one of the accounts I went short.
And nothing happened!!!! The next day the trade was still on and it didn't get stopped out so.....it stayed on for Tuesday. And you guessed it......the trade was still on and again did not get stopped out. But now the market was getting squeezed up against the triangle intersection so on Tuesday night I went short again in a second account.
Boy was I surprised Wednesday morning when they were still there and didn't get stopped out. I don't know about you but it would seem that every time I try and let a trade run through the night.....it gets stopped out.
Anyway I was checking emails and replying to some of those emails this morning when I noticed that the chart on the right hand screen was moving. I reduced the email window to see my other charts and wow......it was as if someone pulled the plug in the bath tub. The EUR/USD was tanking!!!
Now the screen shot was taken early on in the morning and the trade actually gave us a little more but to me this was an excellent example of how patience can really pay off. Each trade was only holding 20 pips of risk so it wasn't that difficult to let it run.....and yet everything inside of you keeps saying that it will get stopped out. But then again.....it was a classic set up and should never have gotten stopped out.
The market had a tremendous amount of resistance above it that was tested and tested and tested again. And each time it held its ground and didn't waiver.
So as Christian Traders we need to learn from the market and build our own attributes from these lessons.
In this case it was a great trade and have no fear.....this trade should just keep on going for a few days at least.
But I was reminded of my own personal attributes from this trade knowing that this is the end of the year.....and this swing will close out the year for us as well.
As most of you know......I had a challenging year this year. And at times I had felt that I didn't have much more in me......and wasn't sure if I had what it takes to keep pushing on. But my faith in my God kept me going. And when you know that God has a purpose for you and a plan that has not yet come to fruition.....well you just want to keep on going and hang on to what ever strength you have left.
But this year to me was a long sideways correction that tested the resistance or in my case.....my faith....and tested it again.....and again.....and beyond my wildest imagination....again.
And just like this move when it broke out with such energy and purpose.....so I feel my faith has broken out as well.
So next time you see a trade set up like this and wait and wait and wait.......and your patience gets tested, think about your own attributes and your own faith. Who knows, you may just find that your spiritual life is just like this trade......a chance to gather up your faith....your perseverance......your never failing faith in your God. A God who loves you so much and will never let you down or fail you.....even though sometimes it feels like you are right there in the middle of the fire.
But when you come out of it my friend......you will be stronger and have a great degree of purpose....and a greater amount of faith.
Until next time.......may God bless you real good!!!
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Baby Steps.....Pip Squeaks.....and your road to Success
When we start out trading, we can make some huge mistakes. And huge mistakes can sting.....so we not only remember what they feel like.....we will adjust our methods in order to prevent them from happening again.
But it is the small mistakes that really get us. In fact these small mistakes can actually keep us from ever becoming a successful trader. The small mistakes just hang out unnoticed and pick away at our account. Sometimes we even know that we have a problem.....and we are frustrated about it....but we just can't put our finger on the problem.
Well first we have to back track a little and understand some fundamentals. And I am not talking about fundamentals such as supply, demand and the weather. I mean a fundamental like.....trading is a business.
Ahhh....well duhhhh Dave! Seriously, if we look at trading like it is a business.....which it is.....we can immediately see something that is blatantly obvious. And that is......that most traders will fail......and that most new businesses will fail also.
Well now that I have your attention, why do most businesses fail?
There are two major reasons......and there are many more reasons, but two really are killers. The first is under capitalization. That's a fancy way of saying that they didn't have enough money to hang on during the hard times.....or they just blew it when they were calculating how much money they would need to start the business in the first place.
The second reason is that the new business owner just didn't have the experience to do what he or she was doing. Sometimes they are experts on the product or service that their business is centered around.......but they do not know enough about business administration.....or money management.
Now experience is a funny thing and it reminds me of something that I said in a meeting once.....in front of my client. We were in the middle of a project that was basically in trouble. To me it was real clear what the problem was. But the solution.....well......that was going to be complicated. Anyway....my infuriated client asked me what was going on......what in the world is wrong with these people.....meaning the workers on the project.
I calmly replied.....without thinking too much about the reply......"well, they don't know what they don't know".
Basically I was just implying that they just didn't have the experience yet, to do what they were doing. They were unlearned so to speak.
And that phrase became very popular with my client......and I heard him repeat it over and over again for years. Well, lets face it.....it is true....we don't know what we don't know. At least not yet anyway!
So now let's look at these two top reasons why new businesses fail and apply that to trading for a comparison. Well when we start out in trading it is very obvious that we typically do not know what we do not know yet. So we enter into a business.....that historically has shown that most traders will fail......and we don't know what we don't know yet.....and yet we jump right in. And we are trading against high speed computers, using high frequency algorithms and don't forget......against some of the brightest people on the planet. Gee......sounds like a walk in the park doesn't it?
So we need to learn as much as we can and we need to do that as quickly as we can. The best way to do that is to have a mentor. You see if we have a mentor, we have someone who is an expert.....has many years of experience.....and he or she already knows what he or she should know. And the best thing is that they will show us the mistakes, before we make the mistake.
But let's face it......a lot of our experience will need to be earned. They say that an expert is a person who has done something for at least 10,000 hours. Okay......for a general worker there are 2,080 hours in a typical work year. Take 80 hours off of that for a 2 week vacation and the basic work year is 2,000 hours. That means in order for us to even start to qualify to be an expert, we need at least 5 years of experience. And......that seems to be about right doesn't it?
So we either have to put in 5 years of making dumb mistakes.....or better yet.....we find someone who is doing what we want to do......and make sure that they have been doing it for at least 5 years. Because that would sort of qualify the individual as an expert....and that's what we need as our mentor.
But make no mistake about it.....learning how to trade requires screen time and lots of trades. So be prepared.....mentor or no mentor.
And when discussing a business we also noted that the business owner should understand business administration.....and money management. This is critical!!!! But the first step for us as traders.....and especially Christian Traders......is to take trading seriously and to learn how to run it like a business. And....we need to learn proper money management. But more on that in a minute!
Basically, that covers the second reason why a new business would fail....and why a new trader will also fail. We need to learn the business.....we will make mistakes and there is absolutely no way of getting around that.....and we have to put in some time.
The first reason why most businesses fail is under capitalization......and guess what.....that is the biggest reason why a trader will fail also. Almost all of the new traders that we meet today.....especially with this crazy economy, want to learn how to trade and only have $2,500.00 up to maybe $5,000.00. And if you do not know what you do not know yet......that can disappear in a heartbeat!
Money to a trader is like inventory is to a business. To a trader it is all about the equity in our account. And with out proper money management rules.....something we do not know if we do not know yet.....we will most certainly fail. It is essential....it is critical.....it is the absolutely most important thing that you can do in order to be successful as a trader.....and that is to PROTECT THE ACCOUNT.....AT ALL COST!!!
You have to be merciless at protecting your account balance. Again......you have to be MERCILESS at protecting your account balance.
Say that 10 times...out loud!!! It is that important.....or better yet.....it is the most important thing that you can do as a trader.
Let me put money management into a slightly different perspective than what you are mostly accustomed to and that is....preventing losses is one of the most important rules.....and if you do have to take a loss....make sure that the loss is the absolutely smallest loss that you can take.
And that does not mean that a tighter stop is the be all, end all answer......when in fact an improperly placed stop will actually increase your risk of loss over time, by constantly taking small amounts of money from your account! It's like having a hundred or a thousand paper cuts......eventually, those small paper cuts can become lethal. It's the same thing with constantly being tagged with those improperly placed stop loss orders. Eventually they will deplete your account.
Stops have to be placed above or below the proper support or resistance point.......based on the current volatility. Now how much the proper stop will cost you.......well that's something to think about as we go further with this discussion. So think about that as we continue......where should my stop go....and can I afford that stop amount, the way I am currently trading?
We need to filter our trades to make sure that our entry is not only a good entry at the right spot......it needs to be on time. If we do that and we enter the market......the market should take off and not even look back at our stop loss. If how ever it stalls.....and starts to flounder.....maybe we should rethink our entry. The last thing that a newbie trader should be doing is trading the consolidation ranges.
We want impulse.....we want the market to drag us into profits. So with this in mind, we want to protect our account from bad timing and bad entries.
To me and those who really understand trading and trading with probabilities, the most important rule would be.......make sure that your winners are larger than your losers. If you understand trading with probabilities.....you can be a really bad trader.....and yet be a very profitable trader. But that's a blog entry for another day.
Before you ever enter a trade, it should have a target that is at the absolute very least, a 2:1 reward to risk ratio. And I say at the very least!! If you study probabilities you will see that a marginal trader.....or a new trader just starting out, using a 2:1 ratio would end up being a break even trader at best. We need to focus on swings that based on volatility and past swings, would give us a reward of 4 or 5 times what we are risking.
Think about this.....we get into trading to make money.....not to become a break even trader. So stretch your self a little and make an effort to seek the trades that give you a decent profit. If you do not seek.....you will not find!
If we do that and constantly aim for trades with rewards higher than 2:1......we are on our way to becoming successful.
So we want to get into trading and we know that most of us will either fail or give up.....and giving up is also failing when you think about it. We know that we have a lot to learn.....and we know that it will take time, probably at least 5 years before we can walk the walk. And we know what the biggest reasons are that will make us fail.....with under capitalization being at the top of the list. And we also know that trading is a business and like trading, most new businesses fail also.
Okay.....now back to the title of this blog....."Baby Steps.....Pip Squeaks.....and your road to Success". So we need to approach trading like baby steps. If you have kids you remember the little ones with their arms out to their sides as they took their first steps.....and them falling down. Some of them even get road rash on their noses because they even tried to run....before they learned to walk.
So we can just apply that to trading and I think we can relate to that in our journey in trading pretty easily. Sometimes we can go faster by slowing things down a bit.....and learn how to walk....before we start to run.
Or in our case.....the proper methodology of taking on a trade....and managing that trade.
But what about the pip squeak? We have all heard of the term. Usually it comes from adults or parents and is aimed at the babies, toddlers....or someone small. But what is a pip squeak? Well we have all heard another similar term and that is a penny pincher. Well a penny pincher is a stingy person....a cheap person....or maybe even a frugal person on steroids. A pip squeak is even worse than a penny pincher......and is really, really cheap. Let me explain that.
And a penny is represented as $.01 or two places out from a dollar....meaning of course that it takes 100 of them to equal a dollar. Well a pip is even smaller than that. A pip stands for a Price Interest Point.....which in almost all cases is represented as $.0001. And the currency traders over in Europe and now in the rest of the world refer to it as a pip, or the smallest price movement of a currency price change.
Now to be technical about it.....in today's economy and with the popularization of currency trading....they now even go beyond 4 decimal places and they call that a pipette....but I think if you called someone a pipette, you may get punched.
So what does this have to do with our success? Well we have a need to protect....at all cost....and to be merciless about protecting our equity or our account balance. And that starts with a very sound money management system. And that means that we have to establish rules of how much we can risk with each trade.....with each day.....with each week and with each month. And we have to do that down to the penny.....right?
But wait a minute.....a penny is 100 times bigger than a pip!!!!!! Say what?
If we multiply a pip which is .0001 times 100 it equals .01!!!! So if we want to protect our account at all cost......we want to be merciless......we want to protect our inventory....our precious account.....and we are only a penny pincher......well we are missing a great opportunity by passing up an chance at being a pip squeak instead. And by becoming a pip squeak.....especially if we are just getting into trading or.....in almost all cases....we are under capitalized....well then we may just increase our chances of success by 100!!!!
Helloooo........!!!! Just checking to see if you were paying attention to this!
Now I already know whats going through your mind....and that's because it has already gone through my mind. You see we all have pet markets. We believe some where inside our heart or in some dusty crevice of our brain, that if we only trade the mini S&P.....or if we only trade Gold.....or if we only trade the Russell, well then that will make us successful. Why....because that's what the experienced guy's trade.....right? And we want to be just like them.
But if we accept the reasons why a business would fail.....and we accept the same reasons why a new trader would fail, we have to do something a little different then those folks if we want to be successful. If we refuse to do that, well then we are destined to becoming part of the sad statistics.....and that is that most traders will fail!!!!
So what am I suggesting here? And of course you don't have to listen to me......but I would at least ask you to think about this.
First of all implement a couple of simple rules for your money management.
These rules would be;
But it is the small mistakes that really get us. In fact these small mistakes can actually keep us from ever becoming a successful trader. The small mistakes just hang out unnoticed and pick away at our account. Sometimes we even know that we have a problem.....and we are frustrated about it....but we just can't put our finger on the problem.
Well first we have to back track a little and understand some fundamentals. And I am not talking about fundamentals such as supply, demand and the weather. I mean a fundamental like.....trading is a business.
Ahhh....well duhhhh Dave! Seriously, if we look at trading like it is a business.....which it is.....we can immediately see something that is blatantly obvious. And that is......that most traders will fail......and that most new businesses will fail also.
Well now that I have your attention, why do most businesses fail?
There are two major reasons......and there are many more reasons, but two really are killers. The first is under capitalization. That's a fancy way of saying that they didn't have enough money to hang on during the hard times.....or they just blew it when they were calculating how much money they would need to start the business in the first place.
The second reason is that the new business owner just didn't have the experience to do what he or she was doing. Sometimes they are experts on the product or service that their business is centered around.......but they do not know enough about business administration.....or money management.
Now experience is a funny thing and it reminds me of something that I said in a meeting once.....in front of my client. We were in the middle of a project that was basically in trouble. To me it was real clear what the problem was. But the solution.....well......that was going to be complicated. Anyway....my infuriated client asked me what was going on......what in the world is wrong with these people.....meaning the workers on the project.
I calmly replied.....without thinking too much about the reply......"well, they don't know what they don't know".
Basically I was just implying that they just didn't have the experience yet, to do what they were doing. They were unlearned so to speak.
And that phrase became very popular with my client......and I heard him repeat it over and over again for years. Well, lets face it.....it is true....we don't know what we don't know. At least not yet anyway!
So now let's look at these two top reasons why new businesses fail and apply that to trading for a comparison. Well when we start out in trading it is very obvious that we typically do not know what we do not know yet. So we enter into a business.....that historically has shown that most traders will fail......and we don't know what we don't know yet.....and yet we jump right in. And we are trading against high speed computers, using high frequency algorithms and don't forget......against some of the brightest people on the planet. Gee......sounds like a walk in the park doesn't it?
So we need to learn as much as we can and we need to do that as quickly as we can. The best way to do that is to have a mentor. You see if we have a mentor, we have someone who is an expert.....has many years of experience.....and he or she already knows what he or she should know. And the best thing is that they will show us the mistakes, before we make the mistake.
But let's face it......a lot of our experience will need to be earned. They say that an expert is a person who has done something for at least 10,000 hours. Okay......for a general worker there are 2,080 hours in a typical work year. Take 80 hours off of that for a 2 week vacation and the basic work year is 2,000 hours. That means in order for us to even start to qualify to be an expert, we need at least 5 years of experience. And......that seems to be about right doesn't it?
So we either have to put in 5 years of making dumb mistakes.....or better yet.....we find someone who is doing what we want to do......and make sure that they have been doing it for at least 5 years. Because that would sort of qualify the individual as an expert....and that's what we need as our mentor.
But make no mistake about it.....learning how to trade requires screen time and lots of trades. So be prepared.....mentor or no mentor.
And when discussing a business we also noted that the business owner should understand business administration.....and money management. This is critical!!!! But the first step for us as traders.....and especially Christian Traders......is to take trading seriously and to learn how to run it like a business. And....we need to learn proper money management. But more on that in a minute!
Basically, that covers the second reason why a new business would fail....and why a new trader will also fail. We need to learn the business.....we will make mistakes and there is absolutely no way of getting around that.....and we have to put in some time.
The first reason why most businesses fail is under capitalization......and guess what.....that is the biggest reason why a trader will fail also. Almost all of the new traders that we meet today.....especially with this crazy economy, want to learn how to trade and only have $2,500.00 up to maybe $5,000.00. And if you do not know what you do not know yet......that can disappear in a heartbeat!
Money to a trader is like inventory is to a business. To a trader it is all about the equity in our account. And with out proper money management rules.....something we do not know if we do not know yet.....we will most certainly fail. It is essential....it is critical.....it is the absolutely most important thing that you can do in order to be successful as a trader.....and that is to PROTECT THE ACCOUNT.....AT ALL COST!!!
You have to be merciless at protecting your account balance. Again......you have to be MERCILESS at protecting your account balance.
Say that 10 times...out loud!!! It is that important.....or better yet.....it is the most important thing that you can do as a trader.
Let me put money management into a slightly different perspective than what you are mostly accustomed to and that is....preventing losses is one of the most important rules.....and if you do have to take a loss....make sure that the loss is the absolutely smallest loss that you can take.
And that does not mean that a tighter stop is the be all, end all answer......when in fact an improperly placed stop will actually increase your risk of loss over time, by constantly taking small amounts of money from your account! It's like having a hundred or a thousand paper cuts......eventually, those small paper cuts can become lethal. It's the same thing with constantly being tagged with those improperly placed stop loss orders. Eventually they will deplete your account.
Stops have to be placed above or below the proper support or resistance point.......based on the current volatility. Now how much the proper stop will cost you.......well that's something to think about as we go further with this discussion. So think about that as we continue......where should my stop go....and can I afford that stop amount, the way I am currently trading?
We need to filter our trades to make sure that our entry is not only a good entry at the right spot......it needs to be on time. If we do that and we enter the market......the market should take off and not even look back at our stop loss. If how ever it stalls.....and starts to flounder.....maybe we should rethink our entry. The last thing that a newbie trader should be doing is trading the consolidation ranges.
We want impulse.....we want the market to drag us into profits. So with this in mind, we want to protect our account from bad timing and bad entries.
To me and those who really understand trading and trading with probabilities, the most important rule would be.......make sure that your winners are larger than your losers. If you understand trading with probabilities.....you can be a really bad trader.....and yet be a very profitable trader. But that's a blog entry for another day.
Before you ever enter a trade, it should have a target that is at the absolute very least, a 2:1 reward to risk ratio. And I say at the very least!! If you study probabilities you will see that a marginal trader.....or a new trader just starting out, using a 2:1 ratio would end up being a break even trader at best. We need to focus on swings that based on volatility and past swings, would give us a reward of 4 or 5 times what we are risking.
Think about this.....we get into trading to make money.....not to become a break even trader. So stretch your self a little and make an effort to seek the trades that give you a decent profit. If you do not seek.....you will not find!
If we do that and constantly aim for trades with rewards higher than 2:1......we are on our way to becoming successful.
So we want to get into trading and we know that most of us will either fail or give up.....and giving up is also failing when you think about it. We know that we have a lot to learn.....and we know that it will take time, probably at least 5 years before we can walk the walk. And we know what the biggest reasons are that will make us fail.....with under capitalization being at the top of the list. And we also know that trading is a business and like trading, most new businesses fail also.
Okay.....now back to the title of this blog....."Baby Steps.....Pip Squeaks.....and your road to Success". So we need to approach trading like baby steps. If you have kids you remember the little ones with their arms out to their sides as they took their first steps.....and them falling down. Some of them even get road rash on their noses because they even tried to run....before they learned to walk.
So we can just apply that to trading and I think we can relate to that in our journey in trading pretty easily. Sometimes we can go faster by slowing things down a bit.....and learn how to walk....before we start to run.
Or in our case.....the proper methodology of taking on a trade....and managing that trade.
But what about the pip squeak? We have all heard of the term. Usually it comes from adults or parents and is aimed at the babies, toddlers....or someone small. But what is a pip squeak? Well we have all heard another similar term and that is a penny pincher. Well a penny pincher is a stingy person....a cheap person....or maybe even a frugal person on steroids. A pip squeak is even worse than a penny pincher......and is really, really cheap. Let me explain that.
And a penny is represented as $.01 or two places out from a dollar....meaning of course that it takes 100 of them to equal a dollar. Well a pip is even smaller than that. A pip stands for a Price Interest Point.....which in almost all cases is represented as $.0001. And the currency traders over in Europe and now in the rest of the world refer to it as a pip, or the smallest price movement of a currency price change.
Now to be technical about it.....in today's economy and with the popularization of currency trading....they now even go beyond 4 decimal places and they call that a pipette....but I think if you called someone a pipette, you may get punched.
So what does this have to do with our success? Well we have a need to protect....at all cost....and to be merciless about protecting our equity or our account balance. And that starts with a very sound money management system. And that means that we have to establish rules of how much we can risk with each trade.....with each day.....with each week and with each month. And we have to do that down to the penny.....right?
But wait a minute.....a penny is 100 times bigger than a pip!!!!!! Say what?
If we multiply a pip which is .0001 times 100 it equals .01!!!! So if we want to protect our account at all cost......we want to be merciless......we want to protect our inventory....our precious account.....and we are only a penny pincher......well we are missing a great opportunity by passing up an chance at being a pip squeak instead. And by becoming a pip squeak.....especially if we are just getting into trading or.....in almost all cases....we are under capitalized....well then we may just increase our chances of success by 100!!!!
Helloooo........!!!! Just checking to see if you were paying attention to this!
Now I already know whats going through your mind....and that's because it has already gone through my mind. You see we all have pet markets. We believe some where inside our heart or in some dusty crevice of our brain, that if we only trade the mini S&P.....or if we only trade Gold.....or if we only trade the Russell, well then that will make us successful. Why....because that's what the experienced guy's trade.....right? And we want to be just like them.
But if we accept the reasons why a business would fail.....and we accept the same reasons why a new trader would fail, we have to do something a little different then those folks if we want to be successful. If we refuse to do that, well then we are destined to becoming part of the sad statistics.....and that is that most traders will fail!!!!
So what am I suggesting here? And of course you don't have to listen to me......but I would at least ask you to think about this.
First of all implement a couple of simple rules for your money management.
These rules would be;
- Do not exceed 2% of risk against your account....per day
- Do not exceed 10% of risk against your account per week
- Do not exceed 20% of risk against your account in 30 days and if you do....go back to the simulator for at least 30 days.
Now right off the bat understand that rule 3 does not apply when you talk to experienced traders, because in most cases, they will tell you that if you exceed 20% draw down.....it will be almost impossible to recover from those types of losses.
And if you think that you are so special that you are the one that can prove them wrong......odds are that you will blow up your account.
And if you think that you are so special that you are the one that can prove them wrong......odds are that you will blow up your account.
But instead, I would highly recommend that you stick with rule #1 as if your trading life depended on it.....and if you got to rule #2......get back to the simulator until you know that you have fixed the problem.
But wait there is a big problem here. The problem is that most new traders are in fact under capitalized and are destined to fail......unless they become a pip squeak.
You see 2% against....lets say a $2,500 account....is only $50 per day!!!!!! And trading the emini S&P.......well gee.....you can only risk 1 point and then that's it.
If you lose....you are done for the day!
And what about Gold......because you just have to trade Gold right? Well lets not even go there.....because you can't afford the margin....so you can't even get into a trade there....never mind being able to afford setting a stop loss.
If you lose....you are done for the day!
And what about Gold......because you just have to trade Gold right? Well lets not even go there.....because you can't afford the margin....so you can't even get into a trade there....never mind being able to afford setting a stop loss.
So how in the world is a newbie supposed to get started? Well what about Forex?
But I don't want to trade Forex!!! Well the Futures market also has mini and micro sized currency contracts so that is another option that we can consider. Maybe we should even consider some other Futures type of contracts.....something that can get our risk down and make it more manageable. Or....we could even quit!
But let's not be so hasty......let's go a little further and see if we can figure this out.
The fact of the matter is that if you have a small account and you are just starting out in trading....or you have been trying for a while and can't push it over the top yet, then you have three choices. You can trade on a simulator until you can raise enough capital to be properly funded, you can trade something that will fit your money management rules and protect....at all cost.....your account equity.....or you can quit.
But let's not be so hasty......let's go a little further and see if we can figure this out.
The fact of the matter is that if you have a small account and you are just starting out in trading....or you have been trying for a while and can't push it over the top yet, then you have three choices. You can trade on a simulator until you can raise enough capital to be properly funded, you can trade something that will fit your money management rules and protect....at all cost.....your account equity.....or you can quit.
Well actually there is a fourth choice and that is to keep doing what you have been doing and expect a different outcome. But a smart guy that we all heard of states that following that road....is actually the definition of insanity. So maybe we should think about this a little.
But let's at least look at Forex. With Forex you can scale down your trade size when ever you want. AND if you were smart you will already be thinking that it also means that you can scale up any time you want.
So a full sized lot in Forex is worth $100,000 and costs about $1,000 for margin. Each pip is worth $10. Okay but if we have a small account that is still not going to work because we said a 2% risk on a $2,500 account is only $50.00.
So a full sized lot in Forex is worth $100,000 and costs about $1,000 for margin. Each pip is worth $10. Okay but if we have a small account that is still not going to work because we said a 2% risk on a $2,500 account is only $50.00.
Okay..........we can adjust our lot size down to a mini sized lot which is worth $10,000 and it will cost about $200 for margin. And the pip value is now $1.00 per pip. Okay.....now we are talking!
But lets say that we did that and still got into trouble........well they also have a micro sized lot which is $1,000 in value and is $.10 per pip. Wow.....this sounds like we could manage our account very easily when we are having good days....and when we are having bad days.
But lets say that we did that and still got into trouble........well they also have a micro sized lot which is $1,000 in value and is $.10 per pip. Wow.....this sounds like we could manage our account very easily when we are having good days....and when we are having bad days.
But wait.....there is also a nano lot size which is worth $100 in value and is $.01 per pip.
So Forex offers an incredibly flexible way of managing our risk......and protecting our precious inventory which is the money or equity in our account. And remember we need to be merciless about protecting it.
So Forex offers an incredibly flexible way of managing our risk......and protecting our precious inventory which is the money or equity in our account. And remember we need to be merciless about protecting it.
Now let me tell you a little about some of my week this week. Actually it is only about the last 3 days.....but it was very enlightening to me on a personal level......and it made me think about all of those new traders that are just getting into trading. And even more so......it made me think of my frustrating years of trying to learn how to trade.
I started to trade an account that my new employer is "watching". Oh the scrutiny is pretty intense as to what they are watching out for. So right off the bat, there is a lot of pressure that I normally wouldn't have to deal with. But its their money so its their rules.
Anyway I started out with the mini lot size. $1.00 per pip is outstanding when dealing with extra pressure. And the $.40 for commission makes me smile when ever I think about it. But anyway the EUR/USD went into a bear flag and while attempting to catch a break out....I took a couple of small losses. No big deal.....and then the next day....I started to protect that account with a vengeance. If it even looked like it wasn't going to go....I scratched the trade. And then finally caught the break out and got back into the black.
Now when I go back to my account and looked at my stats, my draw down for the week was .9%. There is a decimal point in front of that.....so it is .9%!!!!! And I went right back up into the black and my winners were more than my losers so that's the way I wanted to end the week. Next week is a whole new week, but at least my equity curve is heading up again.....and a .9% draw down......well I can certainly live with that.
But it really impressed upon me about how much control that I now have. I can go up in size when I am doing great.....or better yet....put on some small trades and get some profit cushion in the account....and then raise up the lot size to gain bigger profits as I trade during the day. In that way I would never even have to think about the daily 2% limit.
And if I have a bad trade.....I can instantly drop down to a smaller lot size.
And if I have a bad trade.....I can instantly drop down to a smaller lot size.
And as far as money management goes......well 2% risk is no longer a problem for my account. Because in Forex I have total control over my risk.......by choosing the right sized lot for the current situation.
So becoming a pip squeak can also become your new road to success. Lets face it.....there is no shortcut to the 10,000 hour expert rule. You have to put in the screen time and trade a lot in order to get the experience that is needed in order to become successful.
But if you have ever blown up an account in the past......or are still struggling with just being a break even trader......take a serious look at Forex trading. You will have the control that you need in order to manage your account properly and your money can still grow.
But you are in total control now.
But you are in total control now.
And lastly.....time is money. We all know that if we could find a great set up on a 4 hour chart or even a daily chart, we could make a killing on that type of a trade. But there is no way for us to afford that kind of trade......with a $2.500.00 account. Well now its different. Minimize your risk with a good entry, choose a small lot size so that you can use the proper stop that is required......AND add to the position when the profits start climbing on the position.
Huh......all of a sudden you can trade like a pro! And now by becoming a pip squeak......your road to success is now smoother and has more scenery. Huh......go figure!
I hope that this gives you some food for thought.....and may God richly bless you for becoming a better steward of His money.........
Monday, December 12, 2011
The Madness behind the Method
(Click on Image to Enlarge)
Well today is the first post of some of the daily trades that we come across during the day. As you can see in the chart above, the trend was very much down today and I just love the down trades. It seems as if gravity helps you out....and sometimes we can take all the help we can get.
But while I was downloading the chart, I figured that most folks may be confused about some of what is going on...when looking at this chart. Soooo...I guess I should explain the madness behind the method.
This methodology uses at least two time frames. You would go to an even higher time frame to determine overall direction or bias in the market. Then drop down to the chart that you will actually trade.....which in this case is a 15 minute time frame. Then in order to reduce risk and fine tune the entry, we use something that is 1/5th of the size of the chart we are trading....so that means we use a 3 minute chart for timing.
BUT.....both charts must agree in order to take a trade. So lets walk through a few elements of the chart....or at least some of the broad brush strokes. This way in the future when you see the charts being posted, you will have a rough idea what we look for. First I use two indicators which are located at the bottom of the chart. I use a CCI (Commodity Channel Index) with a moving average that was added to it. That moving average is a 5 period simple moving average and it is used for a trigger. That's where those "B's" and "S's" come from. The other indicator is a modified ADX which is a directional indicator but its best attribute is that it displays the strength of the swing or trend.
In addition it also uses two lines that are called DMI's, a positive one and a negative one. We use those to change the color of the bars or candle's on the price chart. And then we use a few moving averages on the chart which are basically used to display dynamic support or resistance.
But one of the moving averages changes color and is either blue (Cyan) or reddish (Magenta), This is a very smooth moving average.....until the trend changes. And then it turns real fast.....and it changes color.
So the basic premise is this. Each indicator or moving average may be useful at some point.....but then again when used by themselves, can get you into trouble. However if we use them as a trigger....in conjunction with strength....and then filtering both time frames with the moving average and the bars that change color.....then we have something.
So you could study the chart above and get a gist of what we are looking for. And if you look at the last pullback all the way to the right and then look at the chart below.....you can see how they confirm each other.
(Click on the Image to Enlarge)
This chart is the 3 minute timing chart. And right around the NY market closing time, one of the trading room members asked me if I was watching this set up that was forming. I was.....but it was early and the 15 minute chart did not confirm the entry yet.
About 45 minutes later though, it triggered a sell signal on the 15 minute chart and that was confirmed on the 3 minute chart. So when you look at the chart you can see the entry and the bar that the exit took place.
The blue dashed lines are a projection of ratio's when compared to the risk we took on when we entered the market. And in this trade we got 4 times the risk for our reward. And to me......a 4:1 trade is golden....especially at the end of the day.
So did you understand all of that? No I didn't think so.....but its all good. The important thing to remember is that we use two time frames and they have to agree. The trigger for a Buy or a Sell is very fast.....so we have a heads up while we wait for the proper entry. And because the trigger is very fast.......we have a very good heads up for the exit. And even though we have a couple of indicators, by turning most of the information into a color......it makes it easier to interpret the information.
And lastly....but to me....more importantly.....we measure the trade using reward and risk ratio's to determine where we are in the trade. Just think of it as the lines on a football field. We know exactly where we are at all times.
So......this is our first post of some of the action in our trading room. But for the real deal, come on in and join us. We can explain it every step of the way in that venue. And each of our members use their own set ups and as they share them with you, you may find something that suits your personality.
Until next time....may God bless you and yours!
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